Sometime this fall, the Federal Reserve will begin a new tightening cycle.
Publicly, Federal Reserve officials appear to be confident that the American labor market may be overheating or that inflation may be on the way in.
Is this the case?
In looking at Employment, Industrial Production, Consumer Prices, Capacity Utilization, Retail Sales, and the West Texas Intermediate price of oil, there's no evidence that the Fed should raise rates.
What is the Fed worried about?...