How Our NFL Predictions Work

References

Pro-Football-Reference.com

Autocorrelation / Elo rating / Monte Carlo simulations / Regression to the mean

The Details

FiveThirtyEight has an admitted fondness for the Elo rating — a simple system that judges teams or players based on head-to-head results — and we’ve used it to rate competitors in basketball, baseball, tennis and various other sports over the years. The sport we cut our teeth on, though, was professional football. Way back in 2014, we developed our

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