Election Forecaster Moves Ohio Senate Race Toward Democrats in 2026
Influential forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Ohio’s Senate race toward Democrats as former Sen. Sherrod Brown seeks comeback against appointed Republican Jon Husted.
COLUMBUS, OHIO — Democrats gained ground in three key U.S. Senate races, including Ohio’s contest, according to ratings changes announced Thursday by an influential election forecaster. However, Republicans are still favored to maintain control of the chamber after November’s midterm elections.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjusted the Ohio Senate race in Democrats’ favor, along with contests in North Carolina and Alaska. The University of Virginia-based forecaster now considers four races as toss-ups: Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and Michigan.
Ohio Race Features Former Senator’s Comeback Bid
In Ohio, former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking to return for a fourth term after Republican Bernie Moreno ousted him in a GOP-dominated cycle two years ago. Brown will face Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who has never won election to the seat but was appointed to replace now-Vice President JD Vance.
The Crystal Ball highlighted Brown as one of two Democratic candidates who have won statewide elections in Republican-leaning states, boosting Democrats’ chances in Ohio. Brown previously served three terms in the Senate before his 2024 defeat.
Path to Democratic Control Remains Challenging
Democrats would need to sweep all four toss-up races and win competitive contests where they’re favored in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota to gain control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold the chamber with a 53-47 majority.
“Democrats’ path to the majority clearer, but we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate,” wrote Crystal Ball authors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman.
The forecaster attributed the ratings changes to “big picture political factors” including President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings. The party controlling the White House typically faces disadvantages in midterm elections, according to the analysis.
Broader Implications for Senate Control
The three ratings changes represent the best chance Democrats have seen this midterm cycle to regain Senate control. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper won the Democratic primary in March and will face former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in November to succeed retiring Republican Thom Tillis.
Alaska’s race also moved toward Democrats, with the forecaster citing a proven statewide candidate as a factor in that contest’s improved Democratic prospects.
Despite the improved outlook for Democrats in individual races, the overall challenge of flipping Senate control remains steep given the number of competitive contests they would need to win simultaneously.
